My Top 10: Starting Pitchers
By: Max Greenfield
Though Brian Kenny may believe differently, starting pitchers still control this sport. If a team wants to win, having an ace is going to help. In 2018, the Red Sox had Chris Sale. In 2017, the Astros had Justin Verlander. In 2016, the Cubs had Jon Lester. The Giants don’t win all of their titles without Madison Bumgarner, arguably the best world series pitcher of all time. A guy you who is going to take the ball every fifth day, throw 7 innings and keep your team in the game is invaluable to a team. The sport has a lot of great starters and choosing just 10 is difficult. With the first 5 pitchers, you could make the argument that any one of them is the best pitcher in baseball and you’d have a case. These pitchers were chosen based off their past production and potential moving forward. Here are my top 10 starting pitchers:
1. Max Scherzer
2. Jacob deGrom
3. Chris Sale
4. Justin Verlander
5. Corey Kluber
6. Aaron Nola
7. Blake Snell
8. Luis Severino
9. Gerrit Cole
10. Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer
The 3X Cy Young award winner finally takes the top spot on this list. After years of being behind Clayton Kershaw, Scherzer finally has his moment in the top spot. He has made 6 straight all-star games and finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting all 6 of those seasons. He’s had more than 240 strikeouts in those seasons, including an even 300 last year. He’s had an impressive 2.81 ERA, a 2.86 FIP, and 148 ERA+ over that stretch as well. He’s won 20 games twice and has 107 wins over the past 6 years. Scherzer has evolved over the years in the way he pitches. The Nationals ace relied on a three pitch mix early on in his career with a fastball, slider, changeup combination. Then in 2013, he added a curveball and still throws it about 8% of the time. In 2018, his slider usage rate went down, and he started throwing a cutter more. Scherzer developed 5 pitches he can turn to get outs. This is how Scherzer became the strikeout pitcher he is today. Over the course of his first 3 full seasons, in the big leagues Scherzer never had 200 strikeouts. But since 2013, he hasn’t had less than 230. His slider is still probably his most effective strike out pitch, but he used it just as much as he used his changeup last year to keep hitters off balanced. Last year, Scherzer produced his highest soft contact rate of his career. Fooling more hitters than before. Scherzer is 34 and after 10 full seasons in the big leagues, he has a career 51.2 WAR. At this rate, Scherzer is heading to the hall of fame and I can say I got to watch him pitch.
Jacob deGrom
The 2018 NL Cy Young award winner had one of the most consistent seasons in Major League history last year. The 30-year-old starter made 32 starts in 2018 and he gave up 4 runs in one start all year. Yet, he only won 10 games and finished with a record just above .500 at 10–9. All the Mets had to do was score 4 or more runs every game deGrom started, and they would have won. You would think, asking for 4 runs every game from your offense isn’t too difficult. When deGrom gave up 1 run or less and pitched more than 5 innings, the Mets went 12–7 in those games. If a starting pitcher gives up 1 run, you should be winning more than 75% of those games. The Mets ace was doing his part. He had 217 innings pitched, 269 strike outs, a 1.70 ERA, 216 ERA+, and a 1.99 FIP. His ERA, FIP, and ERA+ were all top in the National League in 2018. His ERA+ was good enough to be in the top 30 all-time for a single season. He also led NL players, position players and pitchers, in WAR with an 8.8 value. deGrom was sensational for the Mets, but the team did nothing to support him offensively. He had an impressive 15.1% swing and miss rate on the year. His fastball velocity was a career high at 96.7 MPH on average. He also threw a 91.6 MPH slider last year, which is frankly, unfair. deGrom had shown a lot of potential in the previous 4 seasons with the Mets, but he finally put it all together in 2018. With the Mets offense looking more complete, deGrom may get opportunities to get wins to quiet the crowds who say he didn’t deserve the Cy Young. (Those people are dead wrong by the way).
Chris Sale
The Red Sox ace has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the last 7 years. Sale has made 7 straight all-star games (including 3 straight starts) and has been top 5 in Cy Young voting 6 of those 7 years. Sale has had at least 200 strikeouts in 6 straight seasons and has the highest strikeout per 9 innings in major league history (1000 IP min). He has a career 144 ERA+ and 2.86 FIP. His ERA+ is good enough to rank him 21st all time and his FIP is 2nd among active pitchers and in the top 100 all time. Chris Sale isn’t higher on this list because his fastball velocity dipped quite a bit in the 2nd half last year. He was averaging a mere 91 MPH on his fastball in the postseason. In comparison he was averaging close to 96 MPH before his injury. He also has seen a drop off once the 2nd half of the season comes into play. Sale has a career 2.66 ERA in the first half, but it rises to 3.20 in the 2nd half. While a 3.20 ERA isn’t bad it rises to 3.78 in September and October. In 2018, Sale had his shoulder injury keeping him sidelined for most of the 2nd half and the Red Sox didn’t need him down the stretch. I don’t agree with the thought process that Sale has something to prove this year because he doesn’t. He just won the world series, as already stated he is remarkably consistent. If his career ended today, he’d likely go to the Hall of Fame. However, there are a lot of questions surrounding Chris Sale, especially around his 2nd half performance.
Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander has done everything there is for a pitcher to do. He has an MVP, Cy Young, ALCS MVP, World Series ring, ERA title, and triple crown. The former MVP might have come off the best season of his career which is one of the most impressive feats from the players on this list. Verlander went 16–9 last year with a 2.52 ERA in 214 innings. He had a career high 290 strikeouts which led the American League. He a career best .902 WHIP which along with his 7.84 K/BB rate, was tops in baseball. His 6.8 WAR was the 2nd highest of his career and his 2.78 FIP was a career low. Verlander has undoubtedly secured his place in Cooperstown thanks to his resurgence with the Astros. He was ALCS MVP in a marvelous postseason pitching performance in game 6 of the ALCS with his teams’ season on the line. He has owned the moment and if he can reach a few milestones, Verlander may be one of the greatest pitchers in major league history. He is 294 strikeouts away from reaching 3000 strikeouts, and 46 wins away from reaching 250 career wins. Though the wins stat is almost meaningless, it’ll but the finishing touches on a marvelous career for Justin Verlander.
Corey Kluber
The 2X AL Cy Young winner is one of the best control artists in baseball. He has a 1.5 BB/9 over the last 2 seasons and is the active leader in the category with a career 1.909 BB/9 rate. Kluber’s accuracy causes him to have a 35% chase rate which was 5% above league average last year. He is a master of deception and the ace of a loaded Indians staff. Kluber has a career 3.09 ERA and in 2017, he had a 2.25 ERA, with a 202 ERA+, 2.50 FIP, and .869 WHIP. All career highs for him. It’s difficult to repeat the success from 2017, but he was still great in 2018. He finished 3rd in Cy young voting, giving 3 straight top 3 finishes, with a 20–7 record and 2.89 ERA. He had 222 strikeouts in 215 innings as well as a 151 ERA+ and 3.19 FIP. His WHIP was still under 1 with .991 WHIP. Kluber’s biggest area of concern is his decreased velocity. His velocity dipped on all of his pitches by about 1 MPH in 2018. Kluber uses such a wide variety of pitches though and has such great control, it shouldn’t hinder him too much. However, it doesn’t put it outside the realm of possibility that Kluber starts to see a slight decline in his numbers soon. He is 32 years old and though he doesn’t have as many innings as others do, but he is still on the wrong side of 30.
Aaron Nola
Nola was primed for a breakout season in 2018, and that’s just what he did. The Phillies Ace went 17–6 with a 2.33 ERA with 224 strikeouts in 212 innings. He had a 175 ERA+, a 3.01 FIP, and .975 WHIP in 2018. Nola was an all-star and finished 3rd in Cy Young voting. Nola’s 5.6 WAR was 4th in the NL and his ERA was 4th in all of baseball among qualified starters. Nola received a very healthy 4 year 45-million-dollar extension a few weeks ago as the Phillies appear committed to him to be their Ace for years to come. If the Phillies can sign Dallas Keuchel, that would give Nola some good mentorship from 2 former Cy Young winners on how to pitch in the postseason. (Keuchel and Jake Arrieta) The all-star starter had a career low hard-hit rate last year and that is due to him mixing his pitches more. His changeup usage was a career high and kept hitters more off balanced than years past. Nola is excellent at getting ahead in the count with a 69% first pitch strike rate. He attacks hitters and that allows him to use his changeup and curveball as put away pitches. I look forward to watching Aaron Nola pitch for a very long time.
Blake Snell
The 2018 AL Cy Young winner does indeed make the list. His 1.89 ERA as the Ace of the Tampa Bay Rays was another part of their improbable season. Snell went 21–5 with 221 strikeouts in 180 innings for the Rays. He had a major league best 219 ERA+ and allowed less 6 hits per 9 innings. He’s only 26 years old and in the first season he qualified for an ERA title, Snell won it. However, I have some major concerns about Blake Snell. His FIP was 2.95 in 2018 which is still good but is a whole run higher than his ERA. That gives me pause for concern. While his BB/9 did fall in 2018, it was still over 3 BB/9 putting his WHIP close to one. His control is an issue he is improving but it’s still an issue none the less. Snell had 0 complete games in 2018 as well but that may just be more an issue of the team’s play style. But the main issue I have is his soft contact rate was a career low while his hard contact rate was a career high. It’s unusual to put the season he had when looking at a pitcher who had a below 20% soft contact rate. Snell is young and just has one full season under his belt. Paired with Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow, he is primed for another good year in 2019 if he can work on the areas mentioned above.
Luis Severino
If there is any pitcher in the bottom half of the list that can make the jump to the top half, Luis Severino is the guy. Severino is 33–14 over the last 2 seasons with a 3.18 ERA and 450 strikeouts in 384 innings. He also has a 140 ERA+, a 3.01 FIP, and just above a 1.09 WHIP. Severino is entering his age 25 season and while he dipped dramatically in the 2nd of the season last year, reports are he was tipping pitches. If that is the case, Severino has an easy fix and should go right back to dominating. In the first half of the season, Severino was probably the best pitcher in baseball. He had a sub 2 ERA, more than 11 strikeouts per 9 innings and was leading the league in wins. Severino finished 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2017 and he will look to get back to that level in 2019. He is the ace of the Yankees staff that now is more complete than it has been in Severino’s time there. The new 40-million-dollar man is pitching with a chip on his shoulder and I would be afraid if I were in the AL East this year.
Gerrit Cole
The Houston Astros acquired Gerrit Cole before the 2018 season and he lived up to the hype. He regained his all-star form on his way to 15–5 record with a 2.88 ERA with 276 strike outs in 200 innings. His 12.4 K/9 was the best among starting pitchers in major league baseball. He had a 140 ERA+ and a 2.70 FIP. He was an all-star for the 2nd time in his career and finished in the top 5 in cy young voting for the 2nd time in his career as well. The Verlander-Cole combination was the best 1–2 punch in all of baseball. Cole was ready for the big moments during the season, with some clutch 10+ strikeout games in August and September. While he did struggle against Boston, Cole dominated in the Indians with a 7 inning, 1 run, 12 strikeout performance in the ALDS. Cole is entering his age 29 season and isn’t a free agent until after the 2020 season. With Justin Verlander’s contract ending soon, the Astros should look to lock down Cole for the future of the staff.
Clayton Kershaw
The best pitcher I have ever seen in my life is Clayton Kershaw. For years, it was no debate on who the best pitcher in baseball was. In fact, the only real question was, if Kershaw was slowly becoming the best pitcher of all time. From 2011 to 2017, Kershaw had a 2.10 ERA, 1623 strikeouts in 1452 innings, a 179 ERA+, a 2.36 FIP, and a .913 WHIP. Those are some insane numbers, but Kershaw has qualified for one ERA title over the last 3 seasons. His fastball velocity dipped dramatically last year. His injuries continue to give him issues and he has been downright awful in the postseason at times. He was solid with a 2.73 ERA, 142 ERA+, and a 3.19 FIP in 2018. Just those aren’t up the standards he set for himself. Will he rebound in 2019? I hope so and think if he can stay healthy, he is still an above average pitcher. We may just have to accept that his best days are behind him. He could also prove everyone wrong and regain his legendary form. Clayton Kershaw is a name to watch in 2019.
Once again, this list is not perfect, no list is. I value players differently than others and there is no one best way to do it. Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carassco, Noah Syndegaard, and many others are all worthy of consideration. All values of WAR are found from Fangraphs. All values of ERA+ are found from Baseball Reference. Data is found between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. Follow me on twitter @GreenfieldMax18.
