My Top 10: Third Base
By: Max Greenfield
3rd base is absolutely loaded with talent right now. Narrowing down the position to 10 guys is difficult to do. Some fringe players like Josh Donaldson (yes, he’s a fringe player), Johan Camargo, Mike Moustakas, and Miguel Andujar could easily be in the top part of this list next year. One of those guys did make my list for top 10 but it was difficult to decide on which one. The hot corner still has players who are defensive wizards like Nolan Arenado and Matt Chapman who remind you of Brooks Robinson. Arenado and Matt Carpenter also have top tier power that reminds you of the “power corner” label often associated with the position. It should be noted that Matt Carpenter is defined as a 3rd basemen for this list after the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt. Manny Machado is not on this list as he has not signed yet to play 3rd base for a team, so for now I’m labeling him a shortstop. With that being said, here are my top 10 3rd baseman.
1. Jose Ramirez
2. Nolan Arenado
3. Anthony Rendon
4. Alex Bregman
5. Justin Turner
6. Matt Chapman
7. Matt Carpenter
8. Kris Bryant
9. Eugenio Suarez
10. Josh Donaldson
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez is a player who can do it all offensively. In 2017 Ramirez hit .318 with 29 home runs and 83 RBI. He hit a league leading 56 doubles, stole 17 bases on 22 attempts. The switch hitting 3rd baseman accumulated a 6.6 WAR with a 146 wRC+. He finished 3rd in MVP voting that year behind Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge. So how would he follow up his remarkable 2017? With a season that was just as good if not better in 2018. He did it slightly different though. In 2018, Ramirez hit .270 with 39 home runs 105 RBI and 110 runs scored. He had an OPS of .939 which was slightly worse than .970 OPS in 2017. Yet his wRC+ was the same at 146. Ramirez stole 34 bases which was a career high but what was more impressive is that Ramirez doubled his career high walk amount from 52 to 106. That’s absolutely insane to me. He had 26 more walks than strikeouts in 2018. Ramirez did this by simply swinging less. He went from swinging at 43.4% of pitches to just 38.5% pitches. He was seeing less strikes as well as pitches in the strike zone fell by 3%. He was seeing less strikes, so he started swinging less. It almost sounds too easy. Jose Ramirez can make the game of baseball look that easy times. Ramirez had the 3rd highest WAR in baseball last year and he has put himself in contention as a 5-tool star and a possible 40–40 club member.
Nolan Arenado
The Rockies third baseman really epitomizes the term “Power Corner”. Arenado has hit 158 home runs since 2015. That’s 3rd best in baseball trailing only Nelson Cruz and Khris Davis during that time. Arenado is first in RBI with 503 though. That’s a 162-game average of 129 per year. Arenado has a 127 wRC+ during that time with a slightly under 21 WAR. Arenado is about a 5-win player per year with consistent power production. He’s slugged over .500 5 straight seasons and lead the league in RBI twice. Arenado gets hurt on the advanced metrics because he plays the bulk of his games at Coors Field. Looking at Arenado’s wOBA, weight on base average which places a different value on the different types of ways to reach base. (Along with wRC+ and OPS+, wOBA is one of the best all around measure of players offensive ability but is not adjusted to ballpark) Arenado has ranked tenth wOBA since 2015 (min 1000 PA). Any wOBA value over .370 is considered great according to Fangraphs and Arenado’s wOBA is .386. Describing Arenado as a great player offensively doesn’t do justice to just how good he is as an all-around player. Arenado has played 6 years in the big leagues and has won a gold glove every year. The Rockies third baseman has had 106 defensive runs saved since his rookie season. His defensive WAR is 13.3 which is 10th among active players. Arenado is an unbelievable talent who should be coming into his prime. The Rockies just agreed to a 26-million-dollar arbitration deal, will they look to lock him up long term as well?
Anthony Rendon
Anthony Rendon is one of the most underrated players in baseball. In 6 seasons in the big leagues, Rendon has never been all-star. Rendon has won one Silver Slugger during that time but more for the most part, Rendon has gone without recognition in his career. Rendon has gone back to back .300+ average with 20+ home run seasons. He has also hit 40+ doubles in those seasons as well as leading the National League in 2018 with 44. Rendon over the last 2 seasons ranks 3rd in wOBA, 3rd in wRC+ and 2nd in WAR (min 1000 PA). Basically, Rendon is a top 3 3rd baseman offensively over the past 2 seasons. The 28-year-old has put up back to back 140+ wRC+ seasons as well back to back 6-win seasons. Rendon is an elite third baseman offensively and it’s time he starts getting recognized for it. Defensively, Rendon was bad in 2018 with -6 defensive runs saved which was the worst season of his career. However, he did save 15 runs defensively over the course of the previous 2 seasons before 2018. He can be an elite defender and sometimes it’s more about where Rendon is being positioned. Rendon didn’t have as many chances in 2018 as he did in previous year, so he just wasn’t getting to as many balls. I don’t know why that is as I can’t do that great of research on it given what I use, but it is something to look into. The potential for great defense is there however and that is something to take note of. This could be a breakout year for Rendon, without Harper he could be the best bat in a lineup that features many young stars like Juan Soto and Victor Robles.
Alex Bregman
After being a key piece of the Astros World Series team in 2017, Bregman had to take a larger role in 2018. Altuve, Correa, and Springer all missed time in 2018 and thus the AJ Hinch turned to Bregman in need of a lift. He responded by putting up an absolutely monster season. Bregman hit .286 with 31 home runs, 103 RBI, and 105 runs scored. His slashline was .286/.394/.532 with a .926 OPS, a 157 wRC+, a .396 wOBA, and a 7.6 WAR. His WAR was the same as MVP, Christian Yelich. His wOBA and wRC+ were 5th in baseball last year. Bregman also lead all of baseball in doubles with 51 and had an impressive 83 extra base hits which was 2nd only to Mookie Betts who had 84. Bregman was big in the clutch moments as well. He had several game tying hits, go ahead hits, and walk off hits. He had the weirdest walk-offs I’ve ever seen in my life. 2 walk-offs had a collective distance between them of maybe 70 feet against the A’s and Padres. Bregman was the All-Star Game MVP for hitting a home run in extra innings to eventually win it for the AL. Bregman might have been remembered for fueling an Astros comeback if Andrew Benitendi doesn’t make the play of the year. Bregman was in the center of everything the Astros did last season. The Astros are a stacked team and once again, they should compete for a title.
Justin Turner
Since coming to the Dodgers, Justin Turner has established himself as one of the best offensive 3rd baseman in baseball. In his 5 seasons with the Dodgers, Turner has had 3 seasons of wRC+ value better than 150. 3 seasons of a wOBA value better than .390 and 2 seasons of 5 wins above replacement. Turner hit .305 with 85 home runs over his career with the Dodgers and has been a big reason why the Dodgers turned into the National League mainstay they are. His postseason numbers are incredible as well. A career .313 hitter in the postseason, Turner has 7 home runs and 30 RBI in 49 postseason games. He won the 2017 NLCS MVP which included a dramatic 3-run walk-off home run to win game 2. My issue with Turner is that he isn’t very durable. The Dodgers 3rd baseman has only had one season where he played more than 150 games in his entire career. Turner is 34 and hasn’t been able to stay on the field in his career in the first place. I don’t know if that’s going to get better with age. When he plays he produces at one of the best rates in baseball, but he just doesn’t play enough for me to put him higher on this list. His defense is good too, with 14 defensive runs saved over the past 3 seasons. Turner is a great player and it’s a shame he’s only made one all star team but he’s 34 and doesn’t have a good track record of health. He could be like Adrian Beltre and have a great career post 30. I don’t know if I’d count on that though.
Matt Chapman
It seems almost fitting that Matt Chapman was high school teammates with Nolan Arenado. They are the two-best defensive 3rd basemen in baseball. We’ll start with the obvious, Chapman is the best defensive 3rd baseman in baseball right now. In just under 230 games, Chapman has 48 defensive runs saved. The only player with more during the last 2 seasons in Andrelton Simmons who has played in almost 100 more games than Chapman. The A’s young star covers around 89% of the area that is designated for 3rd baseman. He commits more errors than anyone else, but he gets to more balls than anyone else, so it makes sense. His defense alone is worthy of a spot in the top 10. What makes him an upcoming star is that Chapman can swing it. The Platinum Glove winner hit .278 with 24 home runs and 68 RBI. Chapman had .368 wOBA, 137 wRC+, and 6.5 WAR. Chapman strikes out a lot with 148 strikeouts in 145 games. He is only 25 and I think he can greatly improve that rate moving forward. His chase rate is below average and improved in 2018. If Chapman can get his k rate around 20% and his walk rate around 11%, he could see an even better offensive season next year. I like Chapman and I think he can be a top 3 3rd baseman in baseball after next year. He is a sleeper MVP candidate and though his defense is a big reason why, his offensive game shouldn’t be taken for granted.
Matt Carpenter
The NL MVP race was pretty much a flavor of the month race until Christian Yelich pulled away with it in the end. Matt Carpenter was right in the middle of that conversation for a few months and it brought some well deserved attention to the Cardinals slugger. Carpenter’s career has dramatically changed since it began. In 2013, Carpenter hit .318 with only 11 home runs and 78 RBI. He had 199 hits, 55 doubles, and 126 runs scored. His wOBA value that year was .381. His wOBA value last year was .375 but he did it in much different way. He hit .257 with 36 home runs and 81 RBI. He still had 42 doubles but only 145 hits. In 2013 he had 72 walks, in 2018 Carpenter had 102 walks. His wRC+ was 146 in 2013 and 138 in 2018. Carpenter had similar production but in totally different ways. That’s a testament to him and his ability to adapt to the game. 38.7% of Carpenter’s balls in plays in 2013 were on the ground. In 2018 that rate was 26.4%. Baseball’s current strategy on how to beat the shift is to hit it over the shift, and Carpenter is living proof that it can work. The slugger has had an above average wOBA and wRC+ every year of his career. He’s had 4 seasons where his wRC+ was top 10 in the National League. Paired with Paul Goldschmidt, Carpenter could have a big impact for the Cardinals in 2019.
Kris Bryant
At one point in time, Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout were considered the 3 best position players in baseball. That was just 3 years ago. Bryant won ROY and then immediately followed it up with an MVP season on his way to a World Series championship. He’s 27 and already accomplished more in his 4 years in baseball than most do in their entire career. Bryant could once again be a top 5 3rd baseman in baseball but he’s coming off an injury plagued 2018 highlighted by a Cubs collapse at the end of the year. Bryant hit 39 home runs in his MVP season but hit only 13 home runs last season. He had 3 straight 6 wins seasons but scuffled to a 2.3-win season last year. Bryant took steps backwards in just about every area last year. His offensive production fell by 40 points according to wOBA. (.399 to .359) His defense went from being a positive defensive runs saved value to a negative value. Again, he was hurt and was probably trying to play through the injury when he was playing. He could very well put up another monster season this upcoming year and be the top spot on this list. He’s only 27 and his first 3 seasons are just too good to think last year was the new normal. Bryant should rebound in 2019 and be an MVP candidate again.
Eugenio Suarez
In his age 26 season, Suarez is coming off his first all-star appearance and best year yet. The Reds third baseman hit .283 with 34 home runs and 104 RBI. He slugged over .500, had a .375 wOBA, a 135 wRC+, and a 3.9 WAR. Suarez became the big power bat in a lineup that contains Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett. He’s had back to back 3-win seasons for the Reds and is a key piece to their long-term. The 3rd baseman is locked up with the Reds till 2024, but the way the market is moving that’ll probably be a good thing for both him and the Reds. Suarez strikes out a lot and really hasn’t shown much improvement in that area in his career so far. He has shown the ability to walk with 84 walks in 2017 but went back down to 64 in 2018. He saw more strikes, so he got more hits. Baseball is a simple game, see ball hit ball. Suarez is an average defensive third baseman but has shown promise with 5 defensive runs saved in 2017. He’ll look to build off his strong year in 2018 and help the Reds compete in a packed Central division.
Josh Donaldson
It was just 4 years ago where Donaldson beat out Mike Trout to win the MVP. Donaldson had 5 straight seasons of being a 5-win player. Over that that time, Donaldson hit .282 with 164 home runs and 162 doubles. Slugged over .500, had a wRC+ of over 140, and wOBA over .370. Donaldson saved 48 runs defensively over that time as well. He was spectacular in every way and even recently he was still great. In just 113 games in 2017, Donaldson hit 33 home runs. He hit a home run every 12 at bats that year. The reason Donaldson isn’t higher on this list is because he only played 50 games last year. He was hurt and is entering his age 33 season so his health remains a big factor moving forward. The reason he is on this list at all is because his potential to bounce back is high. He took a big gamble and bet on himself by signing a 1-year contract with the Braves. Going from the AL East, where he dominated in a competitive division to another competitive division in the NL East should be no problem for Donaldson. He can handle the pressure of the postseason. During his time with Toronto, Donaldson hit .423 in the postseason with 3 home runs and 13 RBI in 20 games. He can be a great mentor for the young Braves stars on what it takes to get it done at a high level. I’m hopeful Donaldson bounces back with a big year for the Braves.
Once again, this list is not perfect, no list is. I value players differently than others and there is no one best way to do it. All values of WAR, wRC+, and wOBA are found from Fangraphs. Data is found between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. Follow me on twitter @GreenfieldMax18.
