My Top 5 Starting Pitcher Targets for the New York Yankees
By: Max Greenfield
While the Yankees’ 2023 season was derailed primarily because of an aging position player core having bottom percentile outcomes, the Yankees went into the season with one of the greatest rotations baseball had ever seen. Yet, when the season ended, Only Gerrit Cole qualified for an ERA title, which he did win. The rotation that opened with Frankie Montas at the 5, saw him throw just over an innings in 2023. Carlos Rodon their prized acquisition of the off-season, missed significant time with multiple injuries and when he did pitch, well let’s just watch this clip to describe how it went.
Luis Severino looked to build off a strong 2022 but instead had the worst year of his career, marred by injuries and poor play. Nestor Cortes Jr. struggled with a nagging shoulder problem and much like his teammates, wasn’t particularly good when he did end up pitching. Despite what fans may say, the Yankees have a very clear need for starting pitching this off-season. Luckily for them, there’s a plethora of options both internally and externally.
The Yankees should acquire a starting pitcher in some capacity this off-season, but if they don’t, they have a lot of depth that could potentially help them. First are Clarke Schmidt and Michael King. Schmidt was second in innings for the Yankees this year and looked like a quality rotation arm showing flashes of plus ability multiple times throughout the season. An off-season tinkering with his sweeper, sinker, and cutter could prove very beneficial for him. Michael King emerged as a late-season option when the Yankees really didn’t have any other choice. King dominated in his stint as a starter making him not a quality insurance plan but a focal point of the rotation next year. In the minor leagues, the Yankees are filled with quality options.
Led by Drew Thorpe and Chase Hampton, both top 50 prospects in my opinion, the Yankees are littered with quality rotation options for 2024. Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito both threw innings for the 2023 club and while Brito looks better suited for the bullpen, Vasquez has the stuff to be a starter. With some tinkering to his sequencing, Vasquez could be a sneaky reliable arm in 2024. Will Warren and Clayton Beeter both threw significant innings in AAA and Warren actually led all AAA pitchers in stuff+ while having a sub-4 ERA in the International League. Richard Fitts was the Eastern League pitcher of the year and has grown to be seen as a potential future workhorse.
Drew Thorpe and Chase Hampton are the gems in the otherwise mine of pitching prospects, with Hampton flashing well above average pitch profiles and plenty of strikeouts. Thorpe doesn’t have the velocity that Hampton does but he’s slowly been ticking up in velocity since his junior year of college, another jump could take Thorpe from a top 50 prospect into a top 15 prospect. I believe the Yankees should acquire starting pitching, but they are packed with a ton of arms who can help soon and potential trades. With that said, here are my top five starting pitching targets for the New York Yankees.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The biggest name on the pitching market, Yamamoto is the most decorated pitcher to come from Japan since Masahiro Tanaka. (Not including Shohei Ohtani). Yamamoto is coming off three of the best seasons by a pitcher in Japanese baseball history. He made 76 starts, and threw 557.2 innings, with a 1.42 ERA including a 1.19 ERA in 2023. He racked up 587 strikeouts to just 110 walks good for a 5.3 K/BB ratio, which would’ve been 5th in MLB during that time frame. Yamamoto is in line to win his third straight MVP and third straight Sawamura award.
Yamamoto is the best player on the market this winter, and would immediately be one of the 15 best pitchers in the sport. He offers a unique mix of stuff, durability, and contact managing ability. He attacks hitters with a fastball that averages around 94 mph but can reach up to 97 when he needs it and a splitter that he can manipulate to create different movement patterns. He throws these two pitches well over 75% of the time and he should, they have given him incredible results but he does offer a curveball that hovers in the high 70s, and low 80s and a cutter that he’s shown but doesn’t use a ton. Yamamoto offered up the second-best stuff+ at the World Baseball Classic earlier this year. His stuff is ready for the jump to America.
Yamamoto also offers something the Yankees desperately need from the rotation, durability. Yamamoto has thrown 557 innings in the past three years in the NPB. While he would need to adjust to the MLB schedule of going on 4 days rest or the Yankees may keep him at every 5/6 days, Yamamoto should be depended on for 160–180 innings next year. Something that they did not get from anyone other than Gerrit Cole last year. (Clarke Schmidt just missed) While the postseason has seen a lack of the traditional starting pitching the sport is used to, each of the final four teams has two very good starting pitchers on their roster to go along with a great bullpen. Yamamoto paired with Gerrit Cole and the upside of Carlos Rodon, could be the rotation that takes the Yankees back to the World Series.
Yamamoto is going to see a significant payday, likely close to or above 200 million dollars. This should not scare off the most valuable franchise in North American sports. While people will point to the need to spend on the offense, a point I don’t disagree with, there are not a lot of quality offensive options to choose from. Yamamoto is clearly the best pitcher on the market, and they should spend and give him the 7-year 210 million 210-million-dollar contract he may end up receiving.
Mitch Keller
This is probably going to be the surprising name on my list. Mitch Keller is coming off an All-Star campaign with the Pittsburgh Pirates who had a better year than most people expected. He threw 194 innings with a 4.21 ERA and 210 strikeouts to 55 walks. While the ERA isn’t pretty, the peripheral statistics are all much better. An 18.8 K-BB% paired with sub-4 ERA estimators would tell the average sabermetric fan that Keller should be better in 2024. He should be better, but those numbers don’t tell you why. Here are Keller’s pitch usage numbers paired with his Stuff+ scores. Remember, 100 is the average for Stuff+
By Stuff+, Keller only offers one clearly plus pitch, albeit an extremely plus pitch the 3rd best slider from a qualified starter in 2023. Keller can make two big adjustments to improve in 2024. While his four-seam fastball got a lot of good results, a .287 xwOBA against it, the shape of the pitch is hovering too close to the deadline. He should either stink with the cutter-sinker combination or divulge his off-season efforts into making one of those pitches really good. He spends his off-seasons working with Tread Athletics and they are more than adaptable at making those adjustments.
The second adjustment is really simple, ditch the curveball and just throw the sweeper a lot more. Keller generated multiple sweepers with 20+ inches of horizontal break this year. It’s his best pitch by far and he should find a way to use it more. While the sweeper is not adept at getting lefties out, Keller can either keep the cutter, which did not get great results, or find a way to incorporate his changeup a bit more. If he can make these two adjustments, Keller could be primed for a big 2024. Even so, Keller threw 194 innings last year and is entering the prime of his career. He also provides the durability that the Yankees need. Matt Blake has also found a lot of success with guys like Keller, analytically inclined with one or two very good pitches that just need to be refined. See Clay Holmes, Michael King, Clarke Schmidt, Ian Hamilton, and Jameson Taillon. (Should note two of those guys were former Pirates!)
You may be saying to yourself, why Pittsburgh would trade Mitch Keller? That’s a fair point, Keller isn’t a free agent till 2026 and the Pirates have struggled to produce starting pitching in quite some time. You’d have to be giving up something considerable for them to consider it. Pittsburgh needs a shortstop or second baseman for the future, luckily for them, the Yankees have one. Oswald Peraza can headline a package for Keller, paired with either a duo of starting pitching prospects or a pitching prospect and Nestor Cortes Jr. Trading Nestor away may be seen as selling low and the Pirates may not want to take a chance on his health but he still presents a high upside but not at the volume that the Yankees need. Keller can be at the very least, a reliable back-end starter who gives you innings with the chance for upside. (You can use that trading website to see that it comes out to even value depending on the prospect you use if you want to pull the “Your trade proposal sucks” card.)
Jordan Montgomery
Every year, a different player goes through a postseason stretch where they can significantly raise their stock and earn themselves a pretty hefty payday. This year, that’s none other than Jordan Montgomery. Much has been made about Montgomery since he was traded from the Yankees. Montgomery felt the Yankees limited his fastball usage and that caused him to nibble at times. While the Yankees felt that Montgomery’s four-seam fastball just wasn’t very good he should stick with the changeup and curveball more. What is lost in that is Montgomery developed a very good sinker with the Yankees in 2021/2022.
In 2022, the South Carolina alum neared a 40% usage rate with his sinker and 22% usage for both his sinker with the Yankees. After being traded it dropped and his four-seam fastball usage went up which saw immediate but misleading success. Montgomery was dominating teams that couldn’t hit with his fastball because he threw it 94–96 and they hadn’t seen it a ton. Flash forward to 2023, and Montgomery’s pitch mix was 43% sinker and 22% changeup/curveball respectively. He’s the pitcher the Yankees wanted him to be, just throwing a lot more innings.
That’s the area the Yankees didn’t let Montgomery grow, and he has undoubtedly proven them wrong. The Rangers playoff ace threw 188 innings across 32 starts with two teams. He registered a 3.20 ERA, to pair with 166 strikeouts to 48 walks. While the peripheral statistics are more in line with his career norms, right around 4 in every ERA estimator, Montgomery is one of three pitchers to have at least 30 starts and sub-4 ERA each of the past three seasons. The other two? Kevin Gausman and Gerrit Cole. That’s pretty good company.
I’ve long been a fan of Jordan Montgomery, writing about him back in 2021 as a potential breakout starting pitcher. Montgomery has earned himself a big payday as arguably the safest option for quality production on the market filled to the brim with starting pitchers. While a reunion in New York is probably unlikely because of the lofty payday he will receive and he may not want to shave again. The Yankees have an interest in bringing him back and if the Yankees can convince him to come back, he would slot right behind Gerrit Cole as the reliable starter that he always has been. I could see Montgomery getting anywhere from a 5-year100 million dollar contract to a 6-year 130 million dollar contract. Depending on the status of Yamamoto, that may dissuade the Yankees from pursuing Montgomery, but they would be wise to get his agent on the phone and explore options.
Eduardo Rodriguez
Taking a bit of a different approach, Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to opt out of his contract with the Detroit Tigers to test free agency again. Rodriguez did make headlines earlier in the year when he used his no-trade clause power to stop a trade that would’ve sent him to the Dodgers, and while a reunion in Detroit remains possible, some feel that his decision may cause the Tigers to look elsewhere. Rodriguez’s time in Detroit was controversial, to say the least. Off-the-field issues and poor play in 2022 led to some questions about his long-term outlook.
The Tigers ace bounced back in 2023 with 152.2 innings in 26 starts and a 3.30 ERA. The peripheral statistics might suggest regression and add to the outlook of his future of a new stadium, things can become unclear. Rodriguez had the lowest HR/FB% in his career in 2023. Part of that comes from playing in Comerica Park where home runs are tough to find. What happens when he goes to Yankee Stadium where home runs are a lot more likely to happen is a very legitimate concern with Rodriguez. I believe Rodriguez will likely give up more home runs next year but I think the uniqueness of his arsenal can be fine-tuned to negate some of that.
Rodriguez throws three different fastballs but mainly relies on his 4-seam fastball which he throws 41% of the time. By Stuff+, it’s one of the worst fastballs in baseball at a 73 score. However, because it’s so far away from the average fastball in movement patterns, it actually makes it sneaky effective. He has an RV of 12 on it over the past two seasons with xwOBA values in the .330’s. For a fastball, that’s a solid area to be in. Rodriguez’s best pitch by Stuff+ is his slider that he throws hardly ever. Raising the usage of that pitch along with his changeup, and lowering the usage of the cutter and sinker, could see improved results for the potential free agent. Still, Rodriguez is more of a cost-effective project rather than the sure thing of the other members on this list ahead of him.
This is where things start to divulge a bit from my previous picks. Rodriguez is not a lock to give you 180 innings that Keller and Montgomery are likely going to give you. He doesn’t have several plus pitches or amazing peripherals like the other options. Yet, as I just mentioned, he is likely going to be a cost-effective option in comparison to the other three. Despite what I and many others would like, the Yankees do operate on a budget. If Hal Steinbrenner is going to go all in on Yamamoto, Ohtani, Soto, or somebody like Cody Bellinger, then he may look to try and find value elsewhere. Eduardo Rodriguez is not going to drum up the contract Jordan Montgomery will and could be close to him in value if things go right. That might be appealing for the Hal Steinbrenner. Ultimately I see Rodriguez getting a 4/64 type deal, similar to Jameson Taillon.
Frankie Montas
The Frankie Montas trade that could’ve taken the Yankees over the hump in 2022, went horribly wrong. Montas and Lou Trivino both missed basically all of 2023 after both had some ups and downs in 2022. While the return for Oakland hasn’t been amazing, it still is another trade that didn’t work in the past few years for Brian Cashman. Montas has expressed interest in wanting to return to the Yankees and their desire to get him into a game at the end of the year shows that interest may be mutual. What could Yankee fans expect from a finally healthy Frankie Montas?
From 2021 to before he was traded in 2022, Frankie Montas was one of the 10 best pitchers in the American League. Across 51 starts from the beginning of 2021, to the time he was traded in 2022 Montas’ AL ranks among the qualifiers:
The Yankees took a chance that one of the best pitchers in baseball was healthy when he wasn’t. It didn’t work but you can see why they wanted to take that chance. Not to mention, Montas had a 115 Stuff+ in 2021 and while his stuff dropped down a bit because of injuries in 2022, it was still at 108 before being traded. This was one of the best pitchers in the sport who was also showing signs of making adjustments.
Montas bread and butter four-seam/sinker combo. When healthy, admittedly a question, Montas has thrown near triple digits in the past. The high spin, plus ride fastball created a unique mix with his sinker that relied on seam-shifted wake effects. Two unique pitches that come out of the same slot thrown at the same velocity move in very different ways. Add one of the best splitters in the sport into the mix, that would be enough to make any pitcher one of the best in the sport. When facing Montas, you could see a pitch that either stays up, runs, or drops all in the blink of an eye and you wouldn’t be able to tell until it was too late. The Oakland ace was a rare find though, offering 0 pitches that were below average with a plus slider and a developing cutter. He now has a full off-season to find those pitches and make adjustments to them as he sees fit. That is going to be huge for somebody coming off shoulder surgery.
The Yankees have an advantage here, they are more aware of where he is physically than anybody else. They are more aware of where the improvements need to be made in his stuff, what he is looking for, and what his off-season training will look like. He is going to take a 1-year prove-it deal that is filled with incentives making this a smart move regardless of who else they end up signing. This is one of the deals that I think is far more likely to happen than the others.
For the Yankees to sure things up in the rotation, I’d recommend acquiring at least two starting pitchers. You can never have enough good pitching if people are bought in properly and the Yankees clearly needed it after their rotation ranked in the bottom part of the league in most categories despite a CY Young season from Gerrit Cole. Yamamoto, Keller, and Montgomery offer the highest floor for the rotation but acquiring two of those three pitchers will be incredibly difficult while making upgrades offensively. I think the likeliest outcome here is Montas paired with one of those three. Yamamoto obviously would be the best outcome but have to wait to see how his market plays out. I’ll have my top 5 position player targets out soon so stay tuned!