Off-Season Overview: AL East
By: Max Greenfield
The Tampa Bay Rays got to the World Series, while the New York Yankees sat at home another year. The Toronto Blue Jays rise peaked early and could lead them to spend and compete now. The Baltimore Orioles featured some surprises with more to come while the Boston Red Sox became one of the least watchable teams in baseball. Are the power dynamics of the AL east up for grabs?
The American League East was a top-heavy division in 2019, with the Yankees and Rays being the clear favorites in the division. Going into 2020, it looked like there would be similar results with the expectations of the Yankees to be at the top of the division, the Rays just below them, with the Boston Red Sox chasing both teams. The Baltimore Orioles are rebuilding, and the Blue Jays were close but not quite there yet. While the Rays performed up to expectations, every other team played nothing like it. The Yankees dealt with more injuries and depth issues that haunted them all year. The Blue Jays were good enough offensively to overshadow their pitching problems and make it to the postseason. The Orioles put up a fight for most of the season and showed some promise of the future while the Red Sox are cheering about cutting payroll on Twitter. The division features title contenders and rising powers, how will the off-season look for the once powerhouse American League East?
Tampa Bay Rays
After making their first World Series since 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays proved to the baseball world that their analytic driven focus, and willingness to try anything can lead to winning. The bulk of their roster is set to return to try and make another run at the title in 2021. The great bullpen is set to return and get healthy. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos are all on the roster for the next season with Charlie Morton having a club option. Austin Meadows will get months to heal and try to find the hitter that he was in 2019. Tampa will also get a full season from a new star, Randy Arozarena. Oh, and might I mention, Wander Franco could arrive in 2021.
The Rays have two big names on their 2020 roster that could leave. Mike Zunino, who is a free agent and while has never quite been the offensive force he was hyped up to be, has been solid defensively for a few years now. He will not command a big contract which could make a reunion possible. Charlie Morton has a team option for the 2021 season and I’m sure he will weigh his options but if he plans to pitch in 2021, it won’t be for anyone else.
The Rays need offense. Their starting pitching and bullpen are strong enough to leave as is, assuming they stay healthy. Wander Franco could make his major league debut in 2021. Willy Adames currently commands the SS position with Joey Wendle and Yandy Diaz platooning at third base. The Rays may swing a trade like they always seem to do that includes one of the Wendle/Diaz combination. The infield for the Rays is up for grabs outside of Brandon Lowe at 2B. The Rays could slide either Adames or Franco to 3rd base if they wanted to. They can go internally for the infield help but may have to look into some free agents for some more offensive outfielders. Austin Meadows is likely the long-term DH for the Rays leaving them with an outfield of Arozarena, Kiermaier, and Hunter Renfroe/Manuel Margot. It’s a good defensive outfield but does lack some consistent firepower outside of Arozarena. I could see the Rays go big and trade for Joey Gallo. They have the farm pieces to be enticing for Texas and Gallo is no slouch defensively. An everyday outfield of Arozarena, Kiermaier, Gallo would cause a lot of problems in the American League.
Ultimately, the Rays will make a few weird trades, maybe sign a reliever or two and everybody will wonder what they were doing and have it work out. They will also continue to not pay players large amounts of money and will likely end up trading their key players in a few years. You hear that Brandon Lowe, do not get too comfortable down there in Tampa Bay.
New York Yankees
A team that had World Series bound written all over it back in February seemed to run into a snag yet again. Starting with Luis Severino needing Tommy John surgery, the Yankees could not possibly see the pitching injury woes that would fall onto them again in 2020. After just one appearance, Tommy Kahnle, the glue guy and an arguably most important pitcher of the Yankee bullpen needed Tommy John surgery as well. James Paxton’s velocity escaped him and just as he appeared to be finding it again, he left a start with a forearm flexor strain. Masahiro Tanaka missed time after suffering a scary ball to the head in summer training. Jonathan Loaisiga missed time due to an unknown illness. The injuries didn’t stop with the Yankees pitchers either.
Here is a list of every key offensive player who went to the IL for the Yankees. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Gio Urshela. Only Luke Voit, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Gary Sanchez were spared IL time. Voit led the majors in home runs and carried the Yankees offense at times. Gardner played above expectations and provided positive value on both sides of the ball. Aaron Hicks had a near .380 OBP and played well in the playoffs. Gary Sanchez struggled mightily and ended up losing his job to Kyle Higashioka. It was a frustrating year for the Bronx Bombers, so how do they get to number 28?
The truth is the Yankees don’t need to do much. They have one of the best pitchers on the planet who pitched like it in Gerrit Cole. The loss of Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, and Happ create holes in the rotation. (Though Severino will return around July of next year.) The Yankees seem interested in bringing back at least one of James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has been a fan favorite in New York, so he seems like the favorite to get resigned. Though the better move would be to let him walk, re-sign Paxton on a smaller deal, and maybe sign another reliever. Liam Hendriks might do well in pinstripes.
Speaking of fan favorites, DJ LeMahieu is going to be a very wealthy man by the time the next season rolls around. The Yankees are expected to give him a favorable contract and it makes sense. He will likely finish in the top 5 in MVP voting for two straight years. He’s changed as a hitter since his Colorado days and the Yankees are seeing the benefits. Should the Yankees re-sign him is the better question. The Yankees need two things, pitching depth and infield defense. LeMahieu can’t play shortstop and the Yankees might not be inclined to try Gleyber Torres at shortstop again. In comes Andrelton Simmons on a short-term deal to play shortstop, right? Well, the Yankees might be tight with money and not want to do that if they still want pitching after signing LeMahieu. Jose Iglesias is a name that has been floated around and could be a nice addition to the Yankees in filling the Tyler Wade role and seeing a considerable amount of time at SS. The Yankees are always in on big names, but it would surprise me to see them trade with Cleveland for Lindor with so many shortstops coming in free agency soon.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays started their rise in the AL East a bit earlier than expected. The Blue Jays played their way into the playoffs finishing with the eighth seed in AL, though lost in the two-game wild card series to the eventual pennant-winning Rays. The Blue Jays made some noise offensively in 2020. The team had 7 hitters with a wRC+ above 110. Teoscar Hernandez was playing his way into an All-MLB team before his injury, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. produced all season for the Blue Jays. The team might have had a chance at the 2nd spot in the division if Bo Bichette never gets hurt.
The Blue Jays issues were what everyone thought it would be, pitching. Newcomer Hyun-Jin Ryu was the lone bright spot in otherwise struggling Toronto staff. To the team’s credit, it was something they were very aware of. Making trades for Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, and Ross Stripling. All three struggled in their time with the Blue Jays. Stripling is the only one set to return next year and he has a steadier past than the rest of them. The Blue Jays thought they were going to be the team to discover Robbie Rays’ potential, but they were unsuccessful in doing so. There is some good news about the pitching, help is on the way. Nate Pearson made his big-league debut and was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball before his debut. Simon Woods-Richardson and Anthony Kay are also waiting in the wings. There is some pitching depth and talent already there.
The Blue Jays have an array of free agents that will most likely be leaving the team. The one player they should bring back is Ken Giles. Giles was dominant in 2019 and has struggled with injuries since. He’ll be a good buy-low player and help solidify their bullpen. Other relievers worth looking into are David Robertson, Ian Kennedy, and Joakim Soria. Robertson is recovering from an injury like Giles. Kennedy has quietly been solid in the reliever role for a few years now and Soria might still have some left in the tank. All three could be weapons for Charlie Montoya’s Blue Jays.
If there is a big fish for the Blue Jays to go after, it is Trevor Bauer. Bauer is coming off the best year of his career and has walked back his one-year contract claim. Bauer is inconsistent but when he is on, he is incredible. Toronto is also the kind of small market that would allow Bauer to avoid too heavy media criticism, of which there is a lot. He is a controversial figure and that will follow him wherever he goes. Going to a young team like Blue Jays will allow him to teach the younger pitchers things about the game and pitching while also being able to lead the pitching staff to better days. I think the offense is good enough to compete now, but Trevor Bauer could be the piece to put the Blue Jays in the hunt.
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles surprised some people with their play in 2020. A team that some people thought might not win 10 games, won 25 in 2020. They are still a few years away from being fully competitive, but it was a fun season for the team. The best is yet to come for Orioles as Adley Rustchman sits in the wings. Ryan Mountcastle produced in his small sample size after coming up. Anthony Santander played well at the plate and solid defense in the outfield. Jose Iglesias was one of the biggest surprises of the 2020 season as he had a 160 wRC+ and the highest xBA in the league (min 150 PA). DJ Stewart proved why batting average can be misleading while Hanser Alberto did the same but in a different way. Orioles offense could cause problems for teams.
The pitching staff had shown some flashes of potential but for the most part, looked like the team that had given up the most home runs in baseball history in 2020. Dean Kramer only made a handful of starts but his potential was clear. He stuck out 26% of hitters he faced but he also walked almost 15% of hitters he faced. Improved command could help make Kramer a front-line starter for the team. John Means saw an increase in velocity, an increase in strikeouts, and a slight increase in whiffs, but gave up a lot of home runs. Over a full season, Means may have been able to work out the home run problems but he made improvements that should help them long term. Keegan Akin, like Kramer, showed flashes of potential as well but will have to improve his command too. The Orioles will look to fill out the rest of the rotation.
The Orioles have options. The likelihood that Jose Iglesias is an Oriole next year seems close to 0. It’s not that the team doesn’t need him, just that he will want to go elsewhere for more money and that Orioles are okay with that. They may be inclined to look internally to fill out the infield. Orioles will not be active in free agency on any big names. Freddy Galvis could be the next Jose Iglesias and Zack Cozart could get a chance just to try and prove he can still play. They will look to keep their options open with their position players as they have some talent waiting in the wings.
Every team is going to need pitching to get through the season. The Orioles have four starters right now, but a signing of a Brett Anderson type might be helpful to the team. They also might find themselves talking to Garret Richards as well. There is a vast array of options for the Orioles to choose from to try and piece together a starting rotation. They could also go with completely internal options to try and give them opportunities to improve. It is hard to say one way or another how the Orioles will approach this off-season from a pitching perspective.
Boston Red Sox
It is hard to describe the kind of collapse the Boston Red Sox had. Yes, Mookie Betts got traded to the Dodgers and ended up being the pivotal piece that helped them win the World Series. There has been a lot of discourse on the Red Sox decision to trade Mookie Betts and I won’t get into that. The only thing I will say is it hurts the Red Sox more than they know. I’ll also say that Chaim Bloom is not at all to blame for that decision and I look forward to seeing the moves he makes as the Red Sox GM. Getting Alex Verdugo, and Jeter Downs in return for Mookie was a good return. Verdugo played well this season and can be a staple for the Red Sox going forward, unfortunately for him, he is not Mookie Betts and he likely never will be.
Verdugo, alongside Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Christian Vazquez all produced at the plate. Bobby Dalbec was a monster hitting eight home runs in 92 plate appearances. He did strikeout 40% of the time but Dalbec has swing and miss aspects of his game but has good plate discipline beyond that. He provided more value in 90 plate appearances than Rafael Devers did in 220. No Red Sox disappointed quite like JD Martinez. Martinez has an opt-out for this year but he most likely won’t take it this year as he’s still owed more money than what he can get on the market so unless he does not want to be in Boston, he will be back. Martinez should be fine. It was just a down stretch in which it looked like he just did not want to be there.
The Red Sox struggled in a lot of ways but most notably on the mound. Outside of Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox did not have a single other pitcher give them quality innings until Tanner Houck arrived at the end of the season. Houck was 3rd on the team in fWAR in 17 innings, which tells you more about the Red Sox pitching staff than him. The Red Sox pitching staff was dead last in fWAR. It was just a tough time watching the Red Sox pitch. Luckily, the Red Sox outfield defense was good enough to cover up a lot of issues the team had. The team ranked 4th in outfield DRS and 15th in team DRS. The infield defense was not good, however, but with Xander Bogaerts patrolling shortstop and Rafael Devers at third base, I guess that is expected.
The Red Sox are in a position like the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals. They can either tear it down and rebuild or spend and go for it again. I know, they are going to go with option A, but B is still a possibility. Regardless of what they think, Alex Wood should be a top priority for the team. Wood was a good pitcher from 2013–2018. He was hurt in 2019 but looked a lot better in the playoffs of 2020. The Red Sox need starting pitching, and he is going to be a player in their price range. Chris Sale will return at some point in 2020 and that will be a big lift. While the Red Sox have a multitude of options, Alex Wood is the perfect fit for them.
Jackie Bradley Jr. is going to walk in free agency and that leaves a big hole in center field for the Red Sox. Sticking with the theme of the Red Sox trying to save payroll, I know this isn’t going to go over well with Red Sox fans, Billy Hamilton is an option for the Red Sox. Hamilton is a great defensive outfielder and a blur on the bases. He can not hit anything though. Jake Marisnick is also available and is similar to Hamilton but a better hitter. Both are options to replace JBJ. I know Red Sox fans, these aren’t ideal options but you will always have that 2018 title.
