Off-Season Overview: NL East
By: Max Greenfield
The NL East appears to be the most competitive division in baseball. Will Atlanta continue to dominate, or can the new ownership Mets take over? Are the Phillies stuck in an endless loop while the Marlins are on the come up? Are the Washington Nationals still in a win-now mode? The future of the division is wide open.
An unexpected year created ripples in the NL East. Going into the season, the Braves, Nationals, and Mets expected to battle for the top spot in the division. The Phillies were just a touch below them but still good enough to compete for a playoff spot and the Marlins are in a rebuild that has some promise to it. Flash forward to October and the Covid-19 shortened season offered a few surprises. While the Braves remained the top dog in the division, the Marlins would finish 2nd in the division with a 31–29 record, reaching the postseason for the first time since 2003. The Phillies, Mets, and Nationals all finished below .500 with the Mets and Nationals being tied for fourth. Does a short season stop teams from going for a rebuild? Or the reverse, going all-in on a championship contender? Will a universal DH change the plans of teams, or expanded postseason? Each team has questions to answer this offseason.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta won the division and was a game away from their first World Series since 1999. The pitching staff lost one of its workhorses in Soroka early in the season and pieced together the rotation for the rest of the season. The staff got a big boost from Max Fried as he was one of baseball’s best pitchers in 2020. A mid-season call up Ian Anderson gave the Braves two solid starters in the postseason. They delivered all postseason till the end.
Where Atlanta truly dominated was in its explosive and unrelenting offense. Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, and Marcel Ozuna created a three-headed monster at the top of their lineup. Freeman, the likely NL MVP, was 2nd in baseball in wRC+. Travis D’Arnaud had the 3rd highest wRC+ among all catchers with at least 100 plate appearances in 2020. Atlanta’s offense is a machine and continued their dominance into the postseason. Atlanta scored 26 runs in the first four games of the NLCS but could not keep it up throughout the rest of the series.
Back-to-back division titles may give the Braves some pause in trying to make a big move. They’re in line to bring Marcel Ozuna back regardless of the DH. He can play the outfield and has had roughly average to below-average numbers there in the past. Markakis will have to look elsewhere for a contract, though it’s going to be hard to see him get a deal to his liking. Tyler Flowers is available as well but the success of D’Arnaud will likely make the Braves look internally for their backup catcher. If the Braves are going to upgrade their offense, it will come from the pool of third baseman. Justin Turner is available, but I think the Braves will look to sign Brad Miller. Miller has served as a utility man in the past but has shown some improvements at the plate. He’s the kind of low-key signing the Braves look for.
The Braves bullpen is rock solid but has three key pieces leaving. Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, and Darren O’Day. All could hypothetically return but that could take the Braves out of the starting pitching market. The Braves pitching core of Fried, Soroka, Anderson is solid. Kyle Wright, Touki Toussant are fine filler options as well. Robbie Ray seems like the kind of reclamation project perfect for Atlanta. Ray is filled with potential but has not come close to un-tapping it since 2017. If Atlanta wants to push themselves over the top, they can go after the big fish in Trevor Bauer but that doesn’t fit their offseason style. Atlanta is close, a few key pieces returning, and a potential big starting pitcher splash could make them serious title contenders.
Miami Marlins
Making the postseason for the first time since 2003. Though the team had the first covid outbreak of the season due to some questionable decisions made by the front office and coaching leadership, the Marlins players rallied through their season to finish 31–29. In a full season, the Marlins likely regress and don’t make the postseason. They had a below-average offense, the 5th highest FIP in baseball, and truth be told, aren’t that good. At least they aren’t that good right now. There’s a lot to be hopeful for in Miami.
Several Marlins prospects made an impact on the 2020 team. Sixto Sanchez made his major league debut in 2020 and had a 3.50 FIP in 39 innings. Sanchez throws hard with a good changeup but produces a low amount of swings and misses. Something to keep an eye on as he progresses through his career. Jazz Chisholm showed off some potential in the field while struggling at the plate in his first 60 plate appearances. Jesus Sanchez struggled in his 29 plate appearances but has shown potential to be an impact bat in his minor league career. The Marlins are not in a win-now mode, but their young talent could use some more time.
The good news for the Marlins is they don’t have many free agents. Matt Joyce and Brandon Kintzler are the biggest names on the market for them and they have enough young talent to cover it up internally. If the Marlins want to push themselves over the edge, they could go out and sign some more veteran leadership in the pitching department. The Marlins could be in use of the services of J.A. Happ type. Happ struggled in his one postseason appearance but Happ rebounded fairly well in 2020. Happ made 9 starts and in 6 of them he worked at least 5 innings and gave up 3 runs or less. His time with the Yankees is over and Miami may be the place willing to throw enough money at him to provide some veteran leadership to their young pitching staff. Jake Arrieta is another name that comes to mind for Miami.
Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, Garret Cooper, and Jesus Aguilar led the way offensively in 2020. Cooper, Anderson, and Aguilar have all had a history of being able to perform at an above-average rate offensively, but it was Miguel Rojas offense that led the Marlins. Rojas had a 142 wRC+ to give him a 1.6 fWAR and 1.5 rWAR in just 40 games. He eclipsed his 2019 rWAR in about 27% of the plate appearances. Yes, it was likely a case of large over performance considering his inability to barrel the ball but Rojas can be an average player offensively, with his slightly above-average defense, it could help the Marlins immensely. They are unlikely to go after a big-name free agent but a swing at Joc Pederson type or Jackie Bradley Jr. would not surprise me.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies had what appeared to be a very Phillie like season. They made some big moves in the off-season, signing Zach Wheeler and Didi Gregorius, both of whom performed well in the shortened season. Wheeler had a 3.22 FIP and 2.0 fWAR in 71 innings. Gregorius had a 116 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR in 237 plate appearances. Bryce Harper showed flashes of his MVP self with an incredible 151 wRC+ and a .435 xwOBA. He had the 3rd best xwOBA in baseball and the 7th biggest difference in xwOBA and wOBA in baseball. JT Realmuto had played himself into the MVP conversation before getting hurt. McCutchen was a bit unlucky at the plate but not good in the field, the same as Harper and frankly the rest of the Phillies.
However, the main problem for the Phillies was a bullpen that seemingly refused to get people out. The Phillies bullpen finished with a 7.06 ERA in 186 innings. They had the second-lowest LOB% in baseball and the highest HR/9 in baseball. The positive sign was the Phillies bullpen could strike people out, but it does not matter when you’re giving up home runs to blow the game before the strikeouts. The Phillies tried to improve it with acquisitions Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, and David Hale (if you want to say he is an improvement). Workman was terrible for the Phillies with a 6.92 ERA and 6.96 FIP in 13 innings. Hembree was even worse was 12 ERA and 13 FIP. David Hale was ok with 4 ERA and 4.5 FIP. Manager Joe Girardi had no one he could trust and wore pitchers down by the end of the year.
Whoever takes the Phillies GM job is going to have their hands full. The offense, even without a reassurance that Gregorius and Realmuto will return, could use some improvement defensively. Alec Bohm is the new third baseman and shows some promise on both sides of the ball, but Andrelton Simmons may be the key to helping their overall infield defense improvement. The outfield could use some defensive help too and if they can do it, it may be time to DH Andrew McCutchen. Hoskins isn’t good defensively at 1B but McCutchen has become a liability in the field the last few years.
The bulk of the focus for the Phillies is going to be on the bullpen. Realmuto seems extremely likely to walk in free agency as the Phillies owner has already expressed doubts about his ability to sign him. Phillies may sign a tandem of catchers to replace him or go all in James McCann. They’d be better served going for a tandem, but the Phillies aren’t afraid to try and spend. Jake Arrieta is a free agent but it seems like the two are ready to move away from one another. There are a plethora of relievers available. Declining David Robertson’s option seems likely, but they could pick him back up on a smaller deal. The Phillies will be all over the low-end reliever market this offseason.
New York Mets
Another disappointing season in Queens but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Steve Cohen is waiting on approval from the owners to complete the purchase of the New York Mets. It’s not an understatement to say that the Wilpons have had a tumultuous time as the majority owners of the team. 2020 seemed to perfectly capture their time running the Mets. Another year filled with expectations was cut short due to injury, poor play, and horrible leadership.
Yoenis Cespedes finally returned to the field only to opt out halfway through the season because he was being withheld from the lineup to make sure no incentives in his contract were triggered. There was also no announcement made about Cespedes whereabouts or if he was even alive when he didn’t show up to the ballpark one day. It was a disaster for the Mets PR team.
Marcus Stroman opted out of the season after he had reached his service time needed to hit free agency. Stroman didn’t throw a pitch in 2020 because he was recovering from injury in the early part of the season. The Mets rotation was left with Jacob DeGrom and hey when does DeGrom pitch again? Relying on Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo to go back to a starter just wasn’t going to work out for the Mets.
On the bright side, the Mets had one of the best offenses in baseball. Dom Smith had a coming-out party and was incredible in this shortened season for the Mets. Robinson Cano rebounded well and Michael Conforto provided a big lift too. In even better news, Edwin Diaz seemed to regain his form and was much better in this short season. The Mets have some pieces to build around in the short term.
It seems like Steve Cohen will make some dramatic changes to the Mets upon arrival. He’s expected to overhaul and expand the analytics department as well as spend to win. They’ve already been attached to names like Trevor Bauer, George Springer, and JT Realmuto. It is a near guarantee that they don’t get all three of them, but Realmuto seems like the most likely. The Mets outfield with Nimmo, Conforto, and potentially Jeff McNeil or JD Davis could be improved defensively. All of them provide enough value offensively though it could sway the Mets to stay away from Springer. Realmuto fits a more pressing need behind the plate. Wilson Ramos was disappointing both offensively and defensively for the Mets. I think the Mets would be better suited going all in Realmuto and re-signing Marcus Stroman. Though it wouldn’t shock me to see all three of them in New York.
Washington Nationals
The 2019 World Series Champions suffered a pretty devastating blow at the beginning of the 2020 season with a positive covid test from Juan Soto. Soto assured it was a false positive, but he still missed the opening weeks of the season. The best hitter in baseball in 2020 was sorely missed as the Nationals struggled to produce offense when Soto was not in the lineup. Trea Turner played well in his absence and the season for the Nationals. The pairing of Turner and Soto at the top of the lineup could give Washington one of the best top 2 punches in the league.
The Nationals have prided themselves on their excellent starting pitching in years past but could not seem to repeat that success in this season. Stephen Strasburg was hurt and only made 2 appearances on the year. Patrick Corbin struggled all year and will now look to retool this offseason. Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer showed his first signs of potential aging decline. Scherzer had the swing and miss stuff but not consistently. He did not put hitters away at the same rate. He could have figured it out and been fine in a normal season, but we will have to wait and see. The rest of the pitching staff was a mix of rookies and pitchers trying to find their way into the normal bullpen/rotation.
The window is closing in Washington. Their big three pitching core is over 30 and several key position players are aging. Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia struggled at the plate. Victor Robles took steps back defensively and offensively as well. Long time GM Mike Rizzo has a new extension for himself and Davey Martinez. They have to decide whether they should rebuild or go for it. If they are going for it, George Springer, Justin Turner, and JT Realmuto are big targets. I also think taking a chance on James Paxton is a good move for the back end of the rotation. If they feel comfortable with Kieboom at third base, Tommy La Stella and DJ LeMahieu remain big-name second base options.
The Nationals farm system was rated in the bottom 3rd of the league. The Nationals have not been known to rebuild since the days of drafting Harper and Strasburg. It’s going to be tough to avoid it if they don’t go all in. Cherish that 2019 World Series ring Nationals fans, you’ve got more than some fanbases.
