The MVP Debate: Evaluating the MVP Choices of the 2010’s Part 3
By Max Greenfield
In the final part of this series, we will look back at some of the most hotly contested MVPs in baseball history. There was only one slam dunk MVP in these final three years, the other 5 had to grind their way to the honor. It was no easy task for the writers in these final three years. One candidate even deserved more love than he received. Let’s take a look at how the writers did.
2017
American League MVP- Jose Altuve
Did they get it right?
Outside of the 2011 AL MVP, this is the award that the writers missed on the most. Aaron Judge was the rightful MVP of the 2017 season. Judge was incredible in his first season in the Bronx. He posted an fWAR of 8.3 and an rWAR of 7.9. Both were considerably higher than Altuve’s. His 174 wRC+ was 14 points higher than Altuve’s was. The reason Judge lost was because of a month-long slump in the middle of the season but Judge was still considerably better even with that slump. Altuve has since been questioned on the legitimacy of the award due to the Astros cheating scandal. Cheating or not, he didn’t deserve this MVP over Judge.
National League MVP- Giancarlo Stanton
Did they get it right?
This is probably the award that people will agree was extremely close. Stanton hit 59 home runs and crushed baseballs at a rate the league had not seen in a long time. Add onto that he did so playing in Marlins park; it is an impressive feat. Stanton led the NL in fWAR and only trailed Joey Votto in wRC+ by 5% (158 vs Votto’s 163). Votto and Stanton had practically the same rWAR (8.1 vs 8.0). Stanton was very good in the outfield with 11 DRS and 8.3 UZR. Votto was also excellent in the field, with 17 DRS and 6.0 UZR. I am fine with giving the award to Stanton or Votto. They were comparable on both offense and defense. If I had a vote, I would have gone Stanton but understand the reasoning for Votto.
2018
American League MVP- Mookie Betts
Did they get it right?
Mookie Betts was spectacular in the 2018 season for the Red Sox. He had a 10.4 fWAR and 10.6 fWAR in 136 games. To put that in perspective, his fWAR.650 and rWAR/650 were both over 11. His 185 wRC+ was 2nd in all of baseball. He had 17 DRS and a 15.3 UZR. He needed to have one of the best years of his career in order to get the MVP as Trout was having a great year of his own. Mookie Betts 2018 season ranked 13th all-time in fWAR since 1950. Safe to say, he had a season for the ages.
National League MVP- Christian Yelich
Did they get it right?
If you buy into the philosophy that pitchers shouldn’t win the MVP, then yes Christian Yelich deserved the MVP. However, I believe that Jacob DeGrom deserved the MVP. DeGrom faced 200 more hitters than Yelich had at-bats so the pitchers can’t impact the game argument seems kind of irrelevant here. DeGrom was 2 wins better Yelich by fWAR standards and though I find rWAR not useful for pitchers, the Mets ace was 3 wins better than him in that area as well. We don’t have a lot of statistics to compare pitchers and hitters, but deGrom has a sizeable gap in both areas. It could be reasoned that the gaps are that large because the Cy Young winner had a lot more opportunities to do so, which is a fair point. Even so, deGrom had one of the most consistent seasons a pitcher has ever had and that deserved more love than it got. His 49 FIP- was tied 10th all-time in a single season tied with 2014 Clayton Kershaw. I understand why Yelich won, but if it were up to me, deGrom should have won.
2019
American League MVP- Mike Trout
Did they get it right?
Can you ever get it wrong with picking Trout? Trout had the highest fWAR in the American league but did trail in rWAR behind Alex Bregman, Marcus Semien, and Matt Chapman. Trout played significantly fewer games than all of those players. If Trout had the same number of plate appearances as Bregman, he would have had a higher rWAR. Trout still led all of baseball in wRC+ and ISO. Off the field issues aside, it seemed the baseball community needed Trout to win the MVP. While Bregman had a case, it would have felt wrong to give him the MVP in hindsight.
National League MVP- Cody Bellinger
Did they get it right?
This is close. Yelich was better offensively and a better base runner but was worse defensively than Bellinger by a good amount. Even if Yelich had the same number of PAs as Bellinger, his rWAR would still be a full win less than Bellinger, however, he’d have much higher fWAR. The argument for Yelich was similar to the argument for Trout. They were or might have been on a rate basis but didn’t get the chance to finish the season. The argument for Bellinger is the same as Bregman, they performed at a high level all year and stepped up for their team through some injuries. There’s no easy choice here but I won’t say the voters got it wrong.
